The Russia-Ukraine war has lasted for nearly two weeks, from February 24 to March 9 today, and both sides have shown a state of exhaustion. There seem to have been some peaceful turns since March 7. The Ukrainian side said that it could give up joining NATO to ensure the territorial integrity of Ukraine, but the territorial integrity here includes the Crimea Peninsula. On the other hand, Russia is willing to stop the so-called “special military operations” as long as it recognizes Russia’s occupation of Crimea and the independence of the two pro-Russian provinces in eastern Ukraine.
A temporary ceasefire began on March 8, intending to allow civilians from five Ukrainian cities to evacuate from humanitarian corridors. This sign has inspired many people. They feel that Russia cannot fight, and Ukraine also has the flexibility to give up its membership in NATO. It seems that the dawn of peace has come, but I am not so optimistic.
Both Ukraine and Russia are not optimistic. Do you remember that before the invasion on February 24, Russia announced twice that it would withdraw its troops from the border? It gives the impression that Putin wants to stop the war, but U.S. intelligence shows that Putin is sending more troops to the Russia-Ukraine border.
Back only a few weeks ago, it should be that when Putin first announced Russia made the withdrawal of troops from the border, he determined to invade. The purpose of the increase in the open and dark is to let Ukraine’s vigilance relax, and once the operation begins, it will have greater confidence to occupy Kyiv quickly.
Putin should be very extreme and stubborn, but the old KGB’s wrist is most flexible. He will withdraw my troops if he admits that Crimea has returned to Russia and the two provinces of Uruguay are independent. It’s such a kind of good seed, but you mustn’t believe it. It induces the Ukrainian army to take the initiative to counterattack and use all its elites to encircle and wipe out the Ukrainian army in one fell swoop. Perhaps, the repetition of old tricks made the international community feel that the Russian military was cowardly at grandma’s house and could no longer hold on after two weeks of fighting. When you listen to a person like Putin, you have to think a lot about it.
It is precise because of this that one can show strength or weakness. I advise everyone not to have high expectations and think that anti-war forces in Russia can quickly overthrow Putin. I hope this happens, but I have to face reality. The leader can show weakness, which means his power is relatively stable.
Therefore, when Putin can easily switch between strength and weakness, it shows that he still has the overall situation in his country.
Although the anti-war voice in Russia is very high, Putin has been in power for more than 20 years and has also competed with the opposition for more than 20 years. He has a good idea of how much the opponent has.
It also has solid support for itself. Russia has certain rights to freedom of assembly and expression after the disintegration of the Soviet Union. It is an authoritarian system, not a totalitarian system. The political ecology has a specific diversity, but it is not rich enough. Putin has made it from such an environment.
