Will the Sanctions Change Russia? Sanctions will severely damage the Russian economy, drastically set back people’s livelihoods, and even collapse the financial system, but not necessarily immediately lead to political collapse.
American scholar Mearsheimer has summed up nearly 200 years of experience in the book “The Tragedy of Great Power Politics.” There has never been a single case where a great power failed due to blockade and sanctions alone.
Due to the control power of the modern government far exceeding that of the Middle Ages, its ability to control the economy, dispatch resources, and respond in a timely manner has been greatly improved. This was brought about by the advancement of fast means of transportation such as railways and the telegraph. A severe famine in one place in the Middle Ages could lead to the collapse of the state.
In modern times, there are railways, which can quickly transport grain from other places, import grain from abroad, and then transport it to the disaster area by railway, so that famine will not spread. They can also use the railway to quickly deploy troops to suppress riots, and there are telegrams to keep the news flowing. The country’s ability to handle crises is many times higher than in the pre-industrial era. The speed of communication in the Middle Ages could not exceed the speed of a horse, and when the court heard the news, riots broke out everywhere.
To compare to the Russia-Ukraine crisis, there is some idea regarding Taiwan. In case, Taiwan faces such a situation as blocking for a few months, Taiwan would be collapsed.
Taiwan’s food self-sufficiency rate is slightly more than ⅓, and the surplus food needs to be imported, but that is only in peacetime. Importing food is more cost-effective, and farming it yourself is more expensive.
In times of war, Taiwan will unleash the potential of its land. As long as the grain storage can last for more than half a year, the problem of self-sufficiency is not a big problem when the next season of grain is harvested. It may be a problem with fuel. Necessary vehicles will not be on the streets, only necessary public transportation will be maintained, and private cars will not be on the streets.
Under normal circumstances, half a year’s worth of fuel can be used for a year, and the situation in the Taiwan Strait has changed. The control of the modern government over the economy and consumption has been greatly improved, which is not comparable to that of the ancient government. This is taking Taiwan as an example. Another example is Iraq, which imposed a 10-year blockade and embargo on it after the Persian Gulf War, which did not bring down Saddam Hussein and had to overthrow him through a ground invasion.
Therefore, it is impossible to make a big country like Russia incapacitated for a short time by sanctions alone, but it will gradually wither and wither, put people’s livelihood into difficulties, put Putin under great pressure, and divide domestic interest groups. It does not mean that Russia will last longer than Iraq in the face of sanctions. The problem with big powers is that the contradictions are more complicated, and the internal conflicts of small countries are simple. It is good for the dictator to control a few things. faster. It’s just that we don’t have high hopes that sanctions will end the crisis immediately.
There is also Putin’s order for nuclear weapons to enter a state of combat readiness in response to Western sanctions. Some people ask whether a nuclear war will break out. There is no such possibility. This is Putin’s psychological warfare. He shows that he is crazy, that no one can stop him, and it is unreasonable. People are afraid of him and gain a certain advantage.
There is no doubt that Putin will fall further to Xi Jinping under pressure, and the CCP will be greatly affected. At least, it is inevitable that the decoupling from the West will be accelerated in terms of technology and economy, and the attitude of the democratic camp to protect Taiwan must be clearer, and it is inevitable. The major economies of the dollar, the euro, and the yen have closed their doors to Russia.
Then Russia’s oil and natural gas are exported to China, and the dollars and euros received have nowhere to spend. It needs to set up a lot of front companies in other countries to spend dollars and euros, buy things and then roll them back to Russia, just like North Korea does. If such a company is discovered, European and American banks will close their accounts, and very troublesome.
Either accept Chinese currency and buy things elsewhere in the world. In order to sanction Russia, the West will take restrictive actions against the international payment of Chinese currency. Originally, the degree of internationalization of Chinese currency is not high, but the Western Nations will also require countries that accept renminbi to choose side stand. Accelerate the arrival of a worldwide East-West decoupling. It is inevitable that Putin will drag Xi into the pit. The Russian-Ukrainian war is transforming into the second stage, the stalemate stage. We will follow up and comment in time.
