Will Nancy Pelosi Visit Taiwan in Her Realfirm Schedule? Today is Monday, and it’s also the first day of August 2022. Nancy Pelosi has arrived in Singapore, the first stop of her Asia tour, and news has changed in two days about whether and how she plans to make a trip to Taiwan. Pelosi didn’t include Taiwan in her official itinerary, just four countries: Singapore, Malaysia, South Korea, and Japan. But if you just look at her itinerary, you can guess a score of six or seven.
Singapore and Malaysia are at the southern tip of the Southeast Asian peninsula, and Taiwan is between them and South Korea and Japan. Therefore, according to common sense, she should make a stopover in Taiwan before going to South Korea and Japan, instead of returning to Taiwan after her trip to Japan. On August 2, Nancy Pelosi left Singapore for Malaysia. The schedule announced by South Korea is that she will come to South Korea on August 4. That is to say: if you go to Taiwan, it is more likely to be between the 2nd and the 4th.
Officials in Taiwan and the United States told CNN that Pelosi will go to Taiwan on August 4 and she will stay overnight. It looks like it may be earlier than that now, because she will be in Korea on the morning of August 4th. This schedule is constantly being adjusted. During the stage, both parties kept a low profile and did not arrange complicated concierge activities in the afternoon or evening. This is the most likely option at present. Another option is to make a detour to Taiwan after leaving Japan before returning to the United States.
There is also a possibility that the CCP is intimidated, and it cannot be ruled out until the end of this matter. The statement posted on Nancy Pelosi’s Twitter account on July 31 was that this visit was to reaffirm an unshakable commitment between allies and friends in the Indo-Pacific. If you skip Taiwan, it will be very shaken, how can you reaffirm? How do show that the United States’ commitment is unshakeable? It’s like going out and slapping yourself in the face for the whole world to see. So some friends are very disappointed to see that Taiwan is not on Pelosi’s official agenda. From a general political logic point of view, there is still a small probability of not going to Taiwan repeatedly, and 70-80% will still go. It’s just that the handling of the process won’t please everyone, and Pelosi still wants to avoid irreparably irritating Beijing.
It is not without precedent for the Speaker of the House of Representatives to visit Taiwan. In 1997, Republican Speaker of the House of Representatives Gingrich visited Taiwan. The Speaker of the House of Representatives ranks third in the U.S. presidential succession list and is the most senior official to have visited Taiwan since 1979. The reason why Gingrich went to Taiwan in 1997 was that the sovereignty of Hong Kong was to be handed over to the People’s Republic of China in that year. It can also be said that the United Kingdom gave up Hong Kong.
Will the United States also give up Taiwan? Naturally, the next question is, will one country, two systems continue to triumph? The CCP also sent out such a test to the United States. In March 1997, Gore, then the vice president, visited Beijing first and went to make it clear to Jiang Zemin. A week later, Gingrich took the delegation of the House of Representatives to Taiwan. Both sides of the strait make it clear that the US policy of maintaining the status quo in Taiwan remains unchanged. The United States also does not want the United Front forces within Taiwan to take advantage of the handover of Hong Kong sovereignty to make a big splash and push Taiwan over. At this time, it is necessary to give Taiwan’s anti-unification forces clear support.
The more important decisions in this world are, the more simple logic and experience are followed, and the more you know about history, the more your mood will fluctuate depending on whether there is Taiwan on the agenda announced by Pelosi. If Nancy Pelosi does change her mind again, she will be completely unqualified, not a mature political figure, and drag the Democratic Party’s popularity to the bottom.
High-level US officials went to Taiwan not too early, but too late. The second half of 2021 will be much better than it is now. Why has Taiwan entered a truly dangerous moment in the second half of 2021? It’s because Biden’s escape-style retreat in Afghanistan allowed Putin and Xi Jinping to see an opportunity, making people very doubtful about the reliability of Biden’s commitment to allies. After the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war, the Biden administration’s assistance to Ukraine is far from sufficient and timely. On March 8, Biden signed an order banning the import of oil and natural gas from Russia, but for contracts that are already in execution, set aside. The 45-day buffer period, which resulted in a peak in oil purchases from Russia in early April, sent Putin precious dollars at a time when he was at his worst (when his goal of capturing Kyiv failed).
To show the strongest determination to stop the aggression, an order should be signed to stop imports at the right time. For oil companies that have suffered losses, the government should contact other suppliers or subsidize the companies that have suffered losses. This is the time to reflect on the action of a government. In general, the Biden administration is weak, and their actions always come too late and are squeamish. This time Nancy Pelosi went to Taiwan because of domestic contradictions in the United States: the economy has declined for two consecutive quarters and the midterm elections are approaching, so the Democratic Party needs to be a little risk-free and take responsibility.
After two days of bickering, there seems to be some tacit understanding between the CCP and Pelosi. Zhao Lijian said on August 1 that he will be ready to fight. As long as she dares to go to Taiwan, we will wait and see! A 2-minute-long promotional video was cut out in the Eastern Theater Command, with the title: Stand ready, follow orders, and fight. This attitude is a bit more reliable than the announcement made by the 80th Army Group Army in the Northern Theater Command on July 29 to prepare for war, but the actual action is only to carry out live ammunition in the area of Pingtan Island in Fujian, which is far from the center line of the Taiwan Strait. The expected escalation did not take place, and the CCP’s military planes did not cross the center line of Taiwan; a large number of military planes did not enter the Taiwan Air Defense Identification Zone; the warships did not escalate the operation level in the waters near Taiwan, at least not yet on August 1, as for the mouth guns. It seems that in response to Nancy Pelosi’s low-key words, the CCP responded with a low-key attitude in practical actions.
Yesterday, there was news on the Chinese Internet that Nancy Pelosi would visit Taiwan in her capacity, and some people wondered if the US was trying cowardice. This is more like an informal proposal from the CCP to the US, which is to support the US. trick. It means: if you want to go, just go, but can you give me a little more face, just go as an individual, let’s just forget about it? Pelosi brought a delegation. She left the team and went to Taiwan alone. Should the remaining members fly to South Korea first? It’s hard to imagine how to arrange it in reality, and visiting Taiwan in her capacity is completely inconsistent with what she said is reaffirmed and unshakeable, and it’s not much different from giving up. In short, this matter will have a clear answer within a day or two after everyone sees this program.
What if China tries fighting the US aircraft carrier? The last time the US military had an aircraft carrier sunk was in 1944. The sunk aircraft carrier was just an escort aircraft carrier with a displacement of only 7,800 tons, even the tonnage of a current destroyer. Can’t keep up. This was almost 80 years ago. At least it’s a rare case in the military tutorial, but it seems unlikely to happen. Although the hot war can be avoided temporarily, the escalation of the Cold War is inevitable. I estimate that after Pelosi visited Taiwan, a large number of CCP military aircraft and warships will be operating near Taiwan. If the United States cannot be repaired, Taiwan will be governed.
For more updates about this news, visit The Japan Times
