Today is Friday, July 8, 2022. Former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was shot while giving a speech in Nara. He died 4 hours after being sent to the hospital. The news shocked the world. At present, only the perpetrator is known to be 40 or 41 years old, a former soldier of the Maritime Self-Defense Force, and a native of Nara who modified the gun to disguise it as a camera and fired a few meters behind Abe. Abe was shot in the neck and chest.
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There has been no detailed disclosure of the suspect’s motive yet. The police have disclosed very limited information. It only shows that the suspect did it deliberately. Even if he was dissatisfied with Abe, he wanted to attack him. It is not easy to speculate in more detail. When this happens, there are usually many conspiracy theories, about partisan struggles, outside forces, and so on. Judging from the current situation, the suspect is more likely to be an individual committing the crime, similar to Reagan’s 1981 attack. The suspect was caught on the spot, with no escape plan, no extraction plan, and it doesn’t look like it was carefully planned. It looks like there is a plan behind a larger, organized force, but the current information is limited, and this speculation is very preliminary.
Abe is the seventh prime minister to be assassinated since the Meiji Restoration and the implementation of the responsible cabinet system in Japan, and the first since World War II. Shinzo Abe’s grandfather, Nobusuke Kishi, was also assassinated, but only wounded.
The impact and change brought to the world by Abe’s assassination
Let’s first talk about the impact and changes that Abe’s assassination brought to the world. Abe Shinzo is a heavyweight figure in Japanese politics. The sudden and unexpected death of such a figure who was active in the center of power will inevitably leave a huge vacuum, and it is inevitable that it will cause far-reaching effects. Abe is a political family with three prime ministers. His grandfather Nobuya Kishi and his great-uncle Eisaku Sato were both prime ministers of Japan. Using a familiar concept in China, he said, “Professors and officials are all over the world.” Shinzo Abe himself first became the Prime Minister of Japan in 2006. He resigned a year later due to health reasons and returned to become the Prime Minister in 2012. He resigned again in August 2020 due to health problems. He was the longest-serving Prime Minister of Japan after World War II. It is bound to leave a deep imprint on political circles.
Because he is the head of the “Hosokawa faction”, the largest faction of the Liberal Democratic Party in Japan. After he took over, he was called the “Abe faction”. His resignation as prime minister does not mean his resignation from politics, and he still has a huge influence in the party. No one can replace his influence and maintain the current political map. For the current Japanese government, subversive changes will not come soon. This term is still a majority government of the Liberal Democratic Party, with more than half of the House of Representatives. There is no sign of an immediate split within the party and the need to win the support of other parties to maintain this government. . As for the Senate election to be held in July, what impact will Abe’s assassination have? It should be seen that the two parties, the Liberal Democratic Party and the Komeito, together hold more than half of the Senate. Since this kind of sudden incident is not a scandal, it should not affect the party’s approval rating. more votes. Therefore, it may not necessarily have a very direct impact on the current government policy.
However, the sudden death of a bigwig with long-term influence will have an impact on the division and combination of factions in the party and affect interpersonal relationships. It will definitely have long-term consequences until someone with influence equal to or more than him takes over the overall situation. . This assassination is also the result of Japan’s long-term low rate of gun crime and lax security.
The assassination of the prime minister in Japanese history
Judging from historical experience, the assassination of political dignitaries is the result of radicalization and fragmentation of social opinions. All the assassinations of the prime minister in Japan’s history have a similar background, and it is a moment when the country’s path has major differences. The first person to be assassinated was Ito Hirobumi, the father of Japanese modernization. In 1909, he went to Harbin to talk with the Russian Minister of Finance. At that time, he was the Speaker of the Privy Council of Japan (equivalent to the chief advisor of the Imperial Advisory Committee), and the purpose of the negotiation was to resolve Japan and Russia. The follow-up issue of the war, negotiating the sphere of influence of Japan and Russia in Manchuria, and also informing the Russian side of Japan’s further intentions for North Korea, that is, annexing North Korea, which is an important step in Japan’s mainland policy. Ahn Jung-Geun was assassinated.
The next five prime ministers were assassinated between 1921 and 1936. During this time, the Japanese prime minister was in a high-risk occupation. Hara Kei was assassinated in 1921, Hamaguchi Yuyuki was assassinated in 1931, and Inyo Takeshi in 1932. Takahashi was Qing and Saito was killed in the famous 226 mutinies in 1936. Takahashi was Qing when he was killed when he was the Minister of Tibet, and Saito was the Minister of the Interior, not the incumbent Prime Minister. The reasons for the killing of the five chiefs were all conflicts with the military, joining the League of Nations, joining the Naval Convention to limit armaments, and advocating cutting military spending during the global Great Depression. Because these diplomatic and economic propositions clashed violently with powerful military groups, either Killed by young soldiers during the mutiny, or by angry Japanese youths instigated by the military, the madness didn’t stop until the civilian government of Japan safely succumbed to the military’s will, but Japan was irrevocably on the road to war.
This is the first time a prime minister (or former prime minister) has been assassinated after World War II. There is a situation: the prime ministers who were assassinated in Japan before World War II were considered moderates or rationalists. Ito Hirobumi is the initiator of Japan’s military expansion, but he is not a war madman. He advocates that Japan should expand steadily on the basis of digesting existing achievements, and also advocates for maintaining China’s stability, not carving up China and destroying China. When the Qing Dynasty sent five ministers to inspect the constitution, Japan was the country that received the most seriousness. Ito Hirobumi and the five ministers explained very carefully and earnestly. They didn’t hide anything. The personal experience and the opinions given are very sincere. Japanese intellectual politicians have never hoped that China would collapse. A very realistic consideration is that Japan has always hoped that China will maintain a certain strength and cooperate with Japan to resist the colonial power of European whites. Japan’s primary imaginary enemy after the Meiji Restoration was Russia. The aggression against China after 1931 was the result of the continuous expansion of the militant forces of the military in Japan’s domestic political struggle and the kidnapping of the country. In the process, the prime ministers who resisted the military forces were killed one by one. .
At present, Shinzo Abe himself is a conservative, and advocates legal loosening of Japan’s military ties, increasing military spendings, such as the refit of the Izumo-class helicopter carrier, the F-35B boarding, and the redevelopment of the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force into an ocean-going navy. What Abe promoted during his tenure was regarded as a hard-line and right-winger on the political spectrum. This kind of person is generally favored by the military. Instead, it was a former Marine Self-Defense Force soldier who assassinated him, which is puzzling. So it is more likely that the assassination was not for political reasons, but for economic reasons or the assassin’s own mental problems. For example, Abe’s economic policy has hurt the interests of some people, and they feel that politicians should be blamed.
Shinzo Abe is also a pragmatic figure. He advocates signing a medium- and long-term peace treaty with Russia and adjusting the military focus to the southwest, that is, China, including the Diaoyu Islands and Taiwan. Regarding the Russian-Ukrainian war, in an interview with The Economist in May this year, he implied that it was an interference with Japan’s security thinking. The current Japanese government of Fumio Kishida has become tough on Russia after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war. , said the four northern islands are Japan’s inherent territory. Abe Shinzo advocates that the main focus of the talks with Russia is to focus on softness and to be stronger with China. Could this have something to do with his assassination? It is not yet known, and it is not easy to make any firm inferences now.
Abe’s last wish and unfinished business have gained more resonance due to his murder
Speaking of the follow-up impact, a dramatic result is that Abe’s last wish and unfinished career have gained more resonance due to his murder. Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party, plus a small party that agrees with the revision of the constitution, is estimated to reach 2/3 of the current House of Representatives. As long as this ratio can be reached in the Senate election on July 10, it will be able to impact the revision of the constitution. However, China’s little pink is fueling this step.
The killing of Abe was cheered on Chinese social media, probably because the incident happened on July 8th, which happened to be the second day of the July 7th Lugou Bridge Incident. The little pinks have not recovered from the memory of the previous day. I’m especially excited about any disaster news, and I won’t repeat these stupid comments here. They have neither the minimum sympathy nor the brains to understand the role of adding fuel to the fire at this time. In fact, the public has never had any profound ability to discriminate, and the trend of public opinion is a portrayal of the basic moral standards and spiritual outlook of the people. Shinzo Abe was born after the war. He was not responsible for Japan’s actions in World War II, and was extremely rude and inferior to his schadenfreude.
Today, with the Great Translation Movement, these remarks will be immediately known by the Japanese people and by the rest of the world. Japan is an introverted but highly self-respecting people who react violently when humiliated and offended. It is not necessarily that Abe’s policies are supported by most Japanese in all aspects, but he is self-defense, military enhancement, and deeper involvement in the Indo-Pacific. Such security propositions will be supported by more Japanese, especially the CCP as the mainstay. a threat in this regard. The little pinks always burst into 250-style courage at the most inopportune moment.
